Using Mann Kendal and t-test methods in identifying trends of climatic elements: A case study of northern parts of Iran


Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari, Javad Khoshhal Dastjerdi and Majid Habibi Nokhandan


The main objective of the present research is to examine trends change in climatic elements in the north of Iran. The daily data of minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation of 6 stations of the area under study are retrieved from Iranian meteorological organization and the are used to calculate other parameters such as average and range of temperature in seasonal and annual scale. Then, Mann Kendal and T-test methods are used for cal-culating the change in aforementioned climatic parameters on seasonal and annual scale. The results of the research indicate a meaningful increasing trend in minimum, maximum and mean temperature and a meaningful decreasing trend in temperature range. Precipitation on seasonal and annual scale do not have significant trends.


DOI: j.msl.2011.10.015

Keywords: Man Kendal test ,T-test method ,Climatic elements ,Trend

How to cite this paper:

Ghalhari, G., Dastjerdi, J & Iran, a. (2012). Using Mann Kendal and t-test methods in identifying trends of climatic elements: A case study of northern parts of Iran.Management Science Letters, 2(3), 911-920.


References

Asgari A., Rahimzadeh F. (2008). Trend analysis of extreme precipitation indices over Iran. Iranian Water Resources Research, 3(3), 42-55.

Azizi, G.H. (2004). Climate change. 1st ed., Ghumes Publication, 274 pp. ISBN: 964-5516-87-0.

Bonsal, B.R.X., Zhang, L., Vicent, A., & Ogg, W.D.H. (2001). Characteristics of daily and extreme temperature Canada. Journal of Climate, 14, 1959-1979.

Domroes, M., & El-Tantawim A. (2005). Recent temporal and spatial temperature changes in Egypt. International Journal of Climate, 25, 51-63.

Esmaili, R., Habibi Nokhandan, M., Fallah Ghalhari, Gh. A. (2009). The Changes Assessment of Growth Season Length and Freezing due to climate Fluctuation- Case-study: Khorasan Razavi Province. Geographical Research Quarterly, 42(73), 69.Fung, C.F., Farquharson, F., & Chowdhury, J. (2006). Exploring the impacts of climate change on water resources-regional impacts at a regional scale: Bangladesh. Climate Variability and Change- Hydrological Impacts (Proceedings of the 5th FRIEND World Conference held at Ha-vana, Cuba, November 2006), IAHS Publication, 308, 389-393.

Guhathakurta, P., Preetha M., Mazumdar A. B., & Sreejith, O. P. (2010). Changes in extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India during the last century, National Climate Centre, Research Report No. 3.

Haan, C.T. (1977). Statistical Methods in Hydrology. The Iowa State University Press, Ames.

Helsel, D.R., & Hirsch, R.M. (1993). Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Journal of Hydrology, 147(1-4), 197-198.

Hirsch, R.M., Slack, J.R., & Smith, R.A. (1982). Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resources, 18, 107–121.

Huth, R., & Pokorna, L. (2004). Parametric versus non-parametric estimates of climatic trends, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 77, 107–112.

Indrani, P., & Abir, A.T. (2009). Trends in seasonal precipitation extremes – An indicator of ‘climate change’ in Kerala, India. Journal of Hydrology, 367(1-2), 62-69.

IPCC (2001). Cambridge University press, 1st ed.

IPCC (2007). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.Jiang, T., Su, B., & Hartmann, H. (2006). Temporal and spatial trends of precipitation and river flow in the Yangtze river basin, 1961-2000. Geomorphology, 85, 143-154.

Kalili A., Bazrafshan J. (2003). A trend analysis of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation over Iran during the last 116 years. Desert, 9(1), 25-33.

Kaviani, M., & Asakereh. H. (2003). Long-term investigation of annual precipitation of Isfahan, 3rd Regional Conference on Climate Change, 21-23 Oct, University of Isfahan, Iran.

Li, Z., Yuanqing, H., Puyu, W., Wilfred, H.T., Wenling, A., Xufeng, W., Lu, A., Wei, Z., Weihong, C. (2011). Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961–2008, Global and Planetary Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.06.008.

Liqiao, L., Lijuan, L., Qiang, L. (2011). Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008. Journal of Hydrology, 404 (1-2), 67-76.

Modarres, R. (2009). Rainfall trends analysis of Iran in the last half of the twentieth century. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 114.

Dore, M.H.I. (2005). Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know? Environment International, 31(8), 1167-1181.

Mosmann, V., Castro, A., Fraile, R., Dessens, J., Sánchez, J.L. (2004). Detection of statistically significant trends in the summer precipitation of mainland Spain. Atmospheric Research, 70(1), 43-53.

Nasri & Modarres (2008). Analysis dry spells trend of Isfahan Province in Iran. Journal of the Ira-nian Natural Resources, 61 (3), 589-60.

Onoz, B., & Bayazit, M. (2003). The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering Environmental Science, 27, 247-251.

Pytrik, R., Frank, E., Alfons, O. L., & Rik, L. (2010). Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses. European Journal of Agronomy, 32(1), 91-102.

Boyles, R.P., & Raman, S. (2003). Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (1949–1998), Environment International, 29 (2-3), 263-275.

Sara del, R., & Ángel, P., Roberto, F. (2005). Analysis of recent climatic variations in Castile and Leon (Spain). Atmospheric Research, 73, (1-2), 69-85.

Shirgholami H., & Ghahraman B. (2005). Study of time trend changes in annual mean temperature of Iran JWSS. Isfahan University of Technology, 2005, 9 (1), 9-24.

Sohrabi, M.M., Marofi, S., Sabziparva, A.A., Maryanaji, Z. (2009). Investigation of existence of trend in annual precipitation of Hamedan Province using Mann-Kendall method. Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 16(3), 163-169.

da Silva, V. de P. R. (2004). On climate variability in northeast of Brazil. Journal of Arid Environment. 58, 575–596.

Xu, Z.X., Takeuchi K., & Ishidaira H. (2003). Monotonic trend and step changes in Japanese precipitation. Journal of Hydrology, 279, 144-150.

Xuebin, Z., Lucie, A., Vincent, W., Hogg, D., & Ain, N. (2000). Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Canada during the 20th Century. Atmospher-Ocean, 38(3), 395–429.

Yanxiang, L., Xiang, L., Qiang, Z., Yufu, G., Ge, G., Jianping, W. (2010). Simulation of regional tempera-ture and precipitation in the past 50 years and the next 30 years over China, Quaternary International, 212( 1), 57-63.

Yazdani, M.R., Khoshhal, J., Mahdavi, M., Sharma, A. (2011). Trend detection of rainfall and air temperature data in the Zayandehrud basin. Journal of Applied Science, 11(12), 2125-2134.

Ye, H., Kalkstein, L.S., & Greene, J.S. (1995). The detection of climate change in the Arctic: an updated report. Atmospheric Research, 37 (1-3), 163-173.

Zheng, X., & Basher, R.E. (1999). Structural time series models and trend etection in lobal and regional temperature series. Journal of Climate, 12, 2347–2358.